Thursday, November 20, 2008

MARKET MYTHS

Jorina Fontelera, reported in her ThomasNetIndustrialNewsRoom article, Light Friday: Great Depression Myths and Bailout Bashes (Nov. 14, 2008): We are probably misguided if we believe our current state of affairs is at all like the Great Depression. To quote:

"1. Herbert Hoover Believed that markets were self-correcting. Fact: Hoover believed in government intervention to support incomes and employment. His policies kept businesses from cutting wages as the economy fell and championed many of the ideas in Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal such as central planing and control of the economy."

This tells me that we are repeating the past in that the current administration will inherit the last administration's foibles, if that's what they are. The current administration inherited the predecessors problems, or what goes around comes around.

"2. The October 1929 crash precipitated the Great Depression. Fact: The crash triggered the passing of countervailing tariffs that caused the international economy to collapse."

A bit different this time, but the crash of the international economy is directly related to the U.S. ability to stay afloat.

"3. Where the market failed, the government stepped in to protect the people. Fact: The Agricultural Marketing Act caused farmers to lose export markets and raised prices from hard-pressed consumers, which both lowered farm productivity and drove farmers off their land."

Where there is cause there is affect or influence. Because the corn market got way out of whack and the price of fuels got way out of whack hasn't seemed to have created a great collapse in the other factors that produce, food, energy and medical related needs. These last three, according to this week's CPI grew a few tenths of a percent where things like transportation absolutely tanked.

I won't go on with the list, but Ms. Fontelera's article is worth reading -- it puts values in perspective again. I believe that the value remains where value belongs, in the products and things that we really need to live. The rest of the stuff, SUV's and $5million houses aren't really necessary in today's economy. Check the archives at http://news.thomasnet.com/IMT/archives/2008/light-friday-111408-great-depression-

Friday, November 7, 2008

VALUE IN EDUCATION

One of my favorite blogs, a chock full of stuff site, is ThomasNet Industrial News Room. If you don't already subscribe to this free site, take a look. Everyday the site has informative and useful information.

Today was no exception, and I think it dovetails with Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner's Friday, November 7, 2008 "Statement . . . that non farm payroll employment declined by 240,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.5 percent."

Sure, there are all avenues of excuses now why employment is the lowest since we can remember in this lifetime, YA-BUT,what about manufacturing?

If you are a manufacturer or a dealer, do you not receive, on a daily basis, at least four major auction notices a day of some manufacturing business going to auction? According to an article written by David R. Butcher, NEW EDUCATION COUNCIL TO SHAPE MANUFACTURING WORKFORCE, some higher houses of learning are taking notice --we are losing our manufacturing expertise.

Now there's an epiphany. We've only been shipping the jobs and the technology offshore for the last thirty years. Dare I say that dreaded word, "DUH?"

Further, the article says, "As International competition intensifies, U.S. manufacturers are having a difficult time finding qualified people to replace the retiring baby boom generation in increasingly sophisticated, high-tech, jobs. Well double "DUH."

Wasn't it in Europe, I believe Germany the leader in this, where a K-12 student was led down the path of either college or trade school. Those that attended and finished trade school are engineer quality. Now the U.S. is recognizing this as a possible solution. Teach science, and math. I happen to be a proponent of liberal arts and I fervently believe that you need art, music and communication as well as physics to be literate. The history of the great thinkers of the world is that they could think in more than one dimension. Mathematicians were philosophers and great artists were mathematicians -- hand in glove.

If the jobs aren't here, if the wages aren't here, if the manufacturing plants aren't here, are we going to ship the new hierarchy of educated machinists and engineers to China to join the rest of our technology.

Come on now. If we want to compete, lets compete. Quit listening to those silly MBA's who hedge funds to put and mostly take. And unions, get real. You can't have it all. You may have to subsidize your own health insurance, I've been paying my full tab for more that thirty-years. Some of you will have to learn like most small businessmen, to support yourself if you want to survive. Keep manufacturing here in the U.S. so that we can compete and cut the deficit -- you think that a new administration is going to save you? Uncle Vinnie would say fugit-about-it. The new admin is going to help those who already stand on their own two feet because we are running out of money.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Pick-Up-Sticks?

I've been off of the blog for a month, almost two. The same washing machine that has the world in a mix affects all of us and I'm viewing the mess as the old game of Pick-Up-Sticks. If you attempt to sort one thing out of a pile chances are the whole mix collapses.

We tread carefully now; just ask your bank for a loan. To post anything worthwhile about the economy is ludicrous -- who wants to hear it anyway? We've finally finished the elections -- thank you, and now we have serious issues. We can see today's BLS post, -1.0 percent in manufacturing, but still 3.3 percent in durable goods manufacturing; -7.3 percent in non durable goods manufacturing. What does this mean in the flux? You would surmise that one supports or detracts from the other. It tells me that we, as a nation, are importing most of our durable goods, TVs, dishwashers, personal computers and Mini-Coopers -- nothing new about that. The increase in aircraft sales will increase the numbers, but then there are glitches, like a strike at Boeing, or domestic auto manufacturing is down. Pick-Up-Sticks.

BUT seriously, can you believe the "downfall of TWINKIES?" According to an article from Jeff Reinke of Advantage Media, the manufacturer of American icon, the TWINKIES is in Chapter 11 Bankruptcy -- awful! The company filed four-years ago and is still working it out.

What a fickle public we are to let that wonderful pastry fall into the bin. Where's our country going? Before the Golden Arches and Taco Bell came TWINKIES. After school it was TWINKIES to bolster the one that was in your sack lunch.

I believe that a boost in the old standbys Rainbow Bread, Bunny Bread, Hostess Cupcakes and TWINKIES will bring our poor economy back on it's feet. AND don't forget MOON PIES too. Oh-you're counting carbs.